![]() ![]() TR: Just a few weeks ago, in Youngstown, on the stage, Donald Trump said to J.D. RG: And for being a suck-up to Donald Trump: State-mandated pregnancies for a rape victim? That is so far out of the mainstream, it’s not even funny. Vance and others are going to say you have to have that baby. ![]() At a recent debate, Ryan pounded Vance on abortion: Congressman Tim Ryan is running a stunningly close race in Ohio against another Thiel protégé, J.D. In any event, some of the Senate races that had been on the periphery have since moved to the center of the fight. We talk about the long political history of Georgia, dating back to its unlikely founding as an antislavery state meant to be a colonial buffer between the slave colony of South Carolina and the Spanish -ontrolled territory of Florida, which kept sending raiding parties up north to free slaves. ![]() If you missed his December 2020 appearance here on the podcast, it’s worth going back and listening - it’s among the ones I’ve gotten the most amount of positive feedback from listeners on. In a minute, we’ll be joined by George Chidi, a Georgia-based contributor to the Intercept, to talk about that race and all things Georgia. 538’s polling average has Warnock up by 4 points over Georgia football star Herschel Walker. Still, Kelly doesn’t lack for money, and there’s only so much you can spend in a single state. Mark Kelly is also looking good, though billionaire Peter Thiel this week said he’s pumping in more money for Blake Masters, the Republican nominee there. But Republicans nominated a nutty candidate in New Hampshire, and polls now have Hassan strongly ahead. Heading into 2022, Democrats were most worried about holding Raphael Warnock’s seat in Georgia, Maggie Hassan’s seat in New Hampshire, and Mark Kelly’s in Arizona. In the Senate, Democratic hopes were dashed in Iowa and Maine by bad candidates, and in North Carolina by some idiotic philandering, but Georgia’s senate runoffs were the equivalent of Democrats catching a straight flush on the river. Democrats significantly underperformed expectations in the House, losing basically every competitive race to Republicans and barely hanging onto control of the lower chamber. Now, the 2020 congressional races, though, were harder to call. It was also clear pretty early that 2018 would be a giant midterm year for Democrats. Losing the Senate that year changed American history, because it meant Obama couldn’t confirm a replacement for Antonin Scalia, and the specter of the open Supreme Court seat drove Republican turnout in 2016, which may - in itself - have been enough to elect Trump. Then there was ISIS sweeping across Syria and Iraq, and Ebola showing up in Texas. The economic recovery was slow, because the stimulus back in 2009 had been way too skimpy, and it was followed by a bunch of deficit deals with Mitch McConnell that slowed it further. Now, 2014 was an ugly year for Democrats. The same was true in 2008 - and then the reverse was true for Republicans in 2010. My first cycle as a reporter was 2006, and it was clear for months ahead of time that Democrats were going to have an extremely good year. I’ve spent years covering midterm elections, but this one is shaping up to be one of the most difficult to predict. Ryan Grim: Ballots have already started to go out across the country. Journalists Jon Ralston and George Chidi join Ryan Grim to discuss two potentially pivotal states, Nevada and Georgia, where tight races for the Senate are underway. 2022 is confounding that pattern, with Democrats slightly favored to hold the Senate and Republicans slightly favored to take the House. The last two times a new president confronted his first midterm election, it turned out to be a wave year for the opposition party. ![]()
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